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Club of Rome Report REGIONALIZED AND ADAPTIVE MODEL OF THE GLOBAL WORLD SYSTEM Report on the Progress in the STRATEGY FOR SURVIVAL PROJECT of the Club of Rome Mihajlo Mesarovic and Eduard Pestel, Directors "C O N F I D E N T I A L" September 17, 1973 1. Motivation and Objectives The world problematique formulated by the CLUB OF ROME is not only global in nature, involving factors traditionally considered as unrelated, but also points to the crisis situations which are developing in spite of the noblest of intentions and, indeed, as their corollary. To point out the problematique and the spectrum of critical and traumatic situations it entails is not enough; the acceptance of the reality of the problematique MUST BE FOLLOWED BY CHANGES IF THE CONCERN IS NOT TO REMAIN PURELY ACADEMIC. It is necessary, therefore, to present the issues within the problematique in specific and relevant terms which requires regions interpretation of the global issues. Furthermore, a basis should be provided for the resolution of conflicts (inevitably accompanying the problematique-type situations) through cooperation rather than confrontation. These factors have provided the motivation for initiation of the Strategy for Survival project which calls for the construction of a regionalized and adaptive model of the total world system with tht following specific objectives: (1) TO ENABLE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WORLD SYSTEM which represent visions of the world future stemming from different cultures and value systems and reflecting hopes and fears in different regions of the world. (ii) To develop a planning and options-assessment tool for long-range issues, and thereby TO PROVIDE A BASIS FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION by cooperation rather than confrontation. 2. Basic Structure of the Model The basic characteristics of the model are: (i) THE WORLD SYSTEM IS REPRESENTED in terms of interacting regions with provisions made to investigate any individual country or subregion in the context of regional and global development. Presently the world system is represented BY TEN REGIONS: NORTH AMERICA, WESTERN EUROPE, EASTERN EUROPE, JAPAN, REST OF DEVELOPED WORLD, LATIN AMERICA, MIDDLE EAST, REST OF AFRICA, SOUTH AND SOUTH EAST ASIA, AND CHINA. (ii) In order to be able to deal with the complex of factors involved in problematique in a way which is sound, credible and systematic, a hierarchical structure has bee adopted for the model in which each level in the hierarchy represents the evolution of the world system within a context defined by a given set of laws and principles. Specifically, the levels involved are: GEO-PHYSICAL, ECOLOGICAL, TECHNOLOGICAL (MAN-MADE ENERGY AND MASS TRANSFERS), ECONOMIC, INSTITUTIONAL, SOCIOPOLITICAL, VALUE-CULTURAL AND HUMAN-BIOLOGICAL. Such and approach enables an optimal use of confirmed scientific knowledge and available data, (iii) An adequate view of the conditions in which the problematique is emerging and under which the solutions must be found require the recognition of the purposive aspects of the human community and adaptiveness of human beings. The model of the world system will have, therefore, two parts: (1) the so-called causal part, representing dynamical processes which follow histoical patterns of development and (2) the so-called goal-seeking part which represents purposive changes under new conditions. The goal-seeking part in turn includes two levels: the decision-making or actions level and the norms level; the former represents the purposive response of the system while the latter represents the values and norms which constrain and condition such a response. 3. Progress in the Model Construction The construction of the model as described in Sec. 2 and with the objectives as specified in Sec. 1 is certainly a rather complex task and the research is organized to proceed in parallel in several directions. The overall assessment of the model status is the following: The model has been developed up to the stage where it can be used for policy analysis related to a number of critical issues, such as: energy resources utilization and technology assessment; food demand and production; population growth and the affect of timing of birth control programs; reduction of inequities in regional economic developments; depletion dynamics of certain resources, particularly oil reserves; phosphorus use as fertilizer; regional unemployment; constraints on growth due to labor, energy or export limitation, etc. Specific developments which enable use of the model as described above include the following: 1. A COMPUTER MODEL OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC SYSTEM HAS BEEN DEVELOPED AND VALIDATED BY AN EXTENSIVE SET OF DATA. The model has two levels - macro and micro. On the MACRO LEVEL the model of each region INCLUDES THE GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT, TOTAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS, CAPITAL AND LABOR PRODUCTIVITY AND VARIOUS COMPONENTS OF FINAL DEMAND SUCH AS PUBLIC CONSUMPTION, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE, AND TOTAL INVESTMENT. ON THE MICRO LEVEL EIGHT PRODUCTION SECTORS ARE RECOGNIZED: AGRICULTURE MANUFACTURING, FOOD PROCESSING, ENERGY, MINING, SERVICES, BANKING AND TRADE, AND RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION. The input-output framework is used for the intermediate demands. A FULL SCALE MICRO TRADE MATRIX ALSO HAS BEEN DEVELOPED. 2. A WORLD POPULATION MODEL HAS BEEN CONSTRUCTED IN TERMS OF THE SAME REGIONS AS THE ECONOMIC MODEL. The model has been validited by the data available. In each region the population structure is represented in terms of four age groups with appropriate delays which make possible assessment of population momentum and assessment of the effectiveness of implementation of various population control measures. 3. AN ENERGY MODEL HAS BEEN CONSTRUCTED which gives for each region the consumption and production of energy and interregional exchange of energy resources as a function of economic factors. Energy is treated both in composite terms and in reference to individual energy sources, namely solid fuel, liquid fuel, nuclear, gas and hydro. 4. A FOOD PRODUCTION AND ARABLE LAND USE MODEL HAS BEEN CONSTRUCTED which allows the assessment of a number of food related issues including: the need and availability of phosphorus required for intensive agriculture, AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF TIMING AND MAGNITUDES OF NATURAL DISASTERS SUCH AS DROUGHT, CROP FAILURE DUE TO DISEASE, ETC. 5. A MAJOR CONCERN IN THE APPLICATION OF THE COMPUTER MODEL is its proper utilization so as to avoid dependence on the deterministic aspects of model operation. In order to avoid this an interactive method of computer simulation analysis has been developed. THE METHOD REPRESENTS A SYMBIOSIS OF MAN AND COMPUTER IN WHICH THE COMPUTER PROVIDES THE LOGICAL AND NUMERICAL CAPABILITY WHILE MAN PROVIDES THE VALUES, INTUITION AND EXPERIENCE. The method utilizes an option specification and selection program which enables the policy analyst or decision-maker to evaluate alternative options on various levels of the decision process, i.e., with respect to goals, strategies, tactical and implementational factors. SPECIAL ATTENTION IS PAID TO THE NORM CHANGING PROCESSES. 4. Progress in Application THE MODEL HAS BEEN USED both for the assessment of alternative scenarios for future regional and global developments (under different regional conditions) as well as in the interactive mode selection of policy options (specifically for the energy crises issues in developed regions). OUR EFFORTS IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED ON FURTHER USE OF THE ALREADY DEVELOPED MODEL. THE PLANS INCLUDE EMPHASIS IN THE FOLLOWING THREE DIRECTIONS: (i) Assessment in the changes over time of the span of options available to solve some major crisis problems. (ii) IMPLEMENTATION of the regional models in different parts of the world and their connection via a satellite communication network for the purpose of joint assessment of the long term global future by teams from the various regions. (iii) Implementation of the vision for the future outlined by leaders from an underdeveloped region in order TO ASSESS with the model EXISTING OBSTACLES AND THE MEANS WHEREBY THE VISION MIGHT BECOME REALITY. |
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#2 |
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Club of Rome: leaders of the environmental scam.
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#3 | |
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Quote:
wikipedia lookup peace palace united nations
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regards....kerry Last edited by kbeet; 30-08-2010 at 12:58 AM. |
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#4 |
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The Club of Rome was created by the same western corporate lobbying system that created the UN & ICC, etc.. So it's no coincidence that the agenda sounds so similar.
Last edited by kappy0405; 30-08-2010 at 01:01 AM. |
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#5 | |
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Quote:
is the vatican
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regards....kerry |
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#6 |
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lol
You have the chief crazy fuckers at home, in the US, at EU(slaves to US) and UN level. Wake up man, you have been utterly deceived by your media. Vatican have long lost their vast influence. Vatican is in decline and mainly draw power from the "3rd" world. The perpetrators are the anglo-saxon and zionazi establishments in the west. You have the NWO since at least half a century.
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"Die glücklichen Sklaven sind die erbittertsten Feinde der Freiheit." "Happy slaves are the most grim enemies of freedom." (Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach) |
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Quote:
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regards....kerry |
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#8 | |
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Quote:
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#9 | |
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Quote:
and today the cry baby muslems say that they were harassed and killd by christains.. one cruesade from christains in self defense for there lives.. after many murders by muslems.. the church acted right
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regards....kerry Last edited by kbeet; 30-08-2010 at 06:31 PM. |
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#10 | |
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Quote:
If I remember correctly, there was the 3.crusade with Richard I. Lionheart at the lead after succeeding most feared german emperor Friedrich I. Barbarossa(his long red beard in combination with his war skills scared the hell out of the muslims). Just read up and how Richard had beheaded his muslim captives in contrast to the great Saladin who released all "Christian" crusaders so they could fight him again, iirc 5000 he released. He even sent his personal doctor to Richard when he was ill. That was a sign of respect for his enemy. The european barbarians didn't care for such things, since they were lacking not only medical knowledge. I seriously think, you are totally misguided historically.
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"Die glücklichen Sklaven sind die erbittertsten Feinde der Freiheit." "Happy slaves are the most grim enemies of freedom." (Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach) Last edited by tinyint; 30-08-2010 at 06:46 PM. |
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#11 | |
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Quote:
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regards....kerry |
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#12 |
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Did the native americans, many aboriginee, uncountable and enslaved africans ask the church for murder and conversion by force?
I once again ask you, have "christians" in the name of jesus or muslims in the name of allah murdered more people throughout history? The "christian" onslaught is still goin on in Iraq and Afghanistan. A moron Bush was entitled by god to fight a new crusade and holy war, I remember. You are completely blind on your "christian" eye. Shame on you.
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"Die glücklichen Sklaven sind die erbittertsten Feinde der Freiheit." "Happy slaves are the most grim enemies of freedom." (Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach) Last edited by tinyint; 31-08-2010 at 12:24 AM. |
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#13 | |
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Quote:
what needs defending if its possable is islam
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regards....kerry |
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#14 | |
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Quote:
Edit: Would you be so kind to spell better? I have quite some problems as foreign speaker to understand your posts.
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"Die glücklichen Sklaven sind die erbittertsten Feinde der Freiheit." "Happy slaves are the most grim enemies of freedom." (Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach) Last edited by tinyint; 31-08-2010 at 12:46 AM. |
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#15 | |
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Quote:
now where did that go
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regards....kerry |
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#16 | ||
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Quote:
They have been invading, slaving and raping in Europe and Africa for 1700 years. Quote:
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#17 | |
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Quote:
I disagree about muslims taking the lead. Europeans, spanish, portugese, english killed far more. And usually they all claimed in the name of god and jesus christ. I may remind you about the I think we all should of learned something from our european bloody indeed history. I dislike "christian" hypocrisy, and secondly we have a good proportion of muslims in our country. Religious clashes is the last thing we need. We should stand together actually, there are others(we agree on) who generously exploit the division.
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"Die glücklichen Sklaven sind die erbittertsten Feinde der Freiheit." "Happy slaves are the most grim enemies of freedom." (Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach) Last edited by tinyint; 31-08-2010 at 02:12 AM. |
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#18 | |
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Quote:
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regards....kerry |
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#19 | |
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Quote:
![]() ![]() You see, possibly only a small minority would disagree that it was even better to disarm the nukes of the biggest terrorist of all, that being USA and Israel. I don't really know what kind of crap you read and what goes on in your propaganda polluted mind. But one thing is for sure, your sources are biased and they poison your heart and mind.
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"Die glücklichen Sklaven sind die erbittertsten Feinde der Freiheit." "Happy slaves are the most grim enemies of freedom." (Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach) |
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#20 | |
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Quote:
i only know what i read. but this i know is true. bin laden attacked new york to punnish america for interfearing in the muslem world. and because the wtc was a big threat to the muslem world http://www.independent.org/publicati...icle.asp?a=689
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regards....kerry |
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