Global Oil decline back in headlines today

[worlds beyond]

"Page last updated at 02:50 GMT, Thursday, 8 October 2009 03:50 UK


Warning over global oil 'decline'

By Sarah Mukherjee
Environment correspondent, BBC News



The report warns the situation will be "extremely challenging".

There is a "significant risk" that global production of conventional oil could "peak" and decline by 2020, a report has warned.

The UK Energy Research Council study says there is a general consensus that the era of cheap oil is at an end.

But it warns that most governments, including the UK's, exhibit little concern about oil depletion.

The report's authors also state that the 10 largest oil producing fields in the world are all in decline.

Reliable gauge

As this report points out, the debate about peak oil is a polarised one.

On one side, there are those who say that global supplies have already reached their zenith, and we are unprepared for the crisis that will hit world economies in the years to come.

On the other, there are oil companies and many energy analysts who dismiss the notion that supplies are running out.

The report's authors admit it is hard to tell who is right, as the world lacks a reliable gauge with which to measure oil depletion.

More than two-thirds of current crude oil production capacity may need to be replaced by 2030

UK Energy Research Council
Problems are created by "inconsistent definitions", it says, noting the "paucity of reliable data, the frequent absence of third-party auditing of that data and the corresponding uncertainty surrounding the data that is available".

It goes on: "The difficulties are greatest where they matter most, namely the oil reserves of Opec countries.

"But they also apply at a much more basic level, such as uncertainties over the amount of oil produced by a given country in a given year.

"The resulting confusion both fuels the peak oil debate and creates substantial risk in relying on any particular set of numbers."

Part of the difficulty in estimating the amount of oil left is that those with the reserves are often unwilling to divulge what can be commercially very sensitive information.

Countries and companies are notoriously reticent about their oil reserves.

But the report suggests the easy oil has already been found, and new reserves will become increasingly difficult and expensive to extract, and will not make up for the current major oil fields as they decline.

It says: "More than two-thirds of current crude oil production capacity may need to be replaced by 2030, simply to keep production constant.

"At best, this is likely to prove extremely challenging."

More attention urged

This report does not contain new research, but is a review of data already available.

But the authors say the risk presented by global oil depletion deserves much more serious attention by the research and policy communities.

"Much existing research focuses upon the economic and political threats to oil supply security and fails to either assess or to effectively integrate the risks presented by physical depletion," they argue.

"This has meant that the probability and consequences of different outcomes has not been adequately assessed."

Despite the evidence, the report notes with some surprise that the UK government rarely mentions the issue in official publications."


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8296096.stm

[elysiumfire]

Yeah, I saw this, and on reading it, one sees the real problem...Part of the difficulty in estimating the amount of oil left is that those with the reserves are often unwilling to divulge what can be commercially very sensitive information. Countries and companies are notoriously reticent about their oil reserves.

So, the report is telling us that stocks are (probably) already in decline, but are unable to give any accurate figures. They are unable to state that the glass is either half-full or half-empty. It is neither positive or negative, but stalling, and is tipping its hat in favour of the oil-producers/polluters.

There are token gestures of looking at renewable energy production, even alternative energy sources, but my guess is, such gestures must not interfere with, or compromise the global oil stranglehold...profits must not be hit, countries must not be perceived as weakening due to their dependency on oil. Part of me believes that any new or renewable energy source will be taken on by the oil producers, they want the monopoly on the profit potential, but that they will not roll out such new and renewable sources until the wells have practically run dry. The lessening oil stocks means greater profit potential in that costs of oil can be raised.

It may be that for domestic users i.e., at home, it is we ourselves that need to look at means of generating electric production without having to rely on the use of the national grid. In fact, one of the better options may be to disconnect from it altogether. Most of us won't be able to do this, either due to location or cost, or a combination of both. Electric generators, solar panels, even wind turbines (probably not an option) are things to look at. The point being, of course, is that we ourselves need to look for alternative means, so research needs to be done. One thing is certain, the coming decades are going to be pretty tough.